tactical trader

I know some of our regular visitors to the site have been worried at the lack of updates over the last month – the good news is they don’t need to worry any more. We’ve just had the fun of moving house and with all the packing of boxes, loading vans, unloading vans, unpacking boxes and (most time consuming of all) telling people about our change of address. It is only in the last couple of days I’ve been able to get on with any work!

Today I’ve published Steve’s review of Mark Shipman’s book The Next Big Investment Boom and an article by John Carter describing two simple strategies for Trading the Euro. I was also going to publish an article by Larry Pesavento about the 3 peaks and a domed house pattern applied to the Dow. Unfortunately the prediction in the article (which was written earlier this year) changed my mind:

In conclusion, there is a strong probability that the top of the stock market in the Dow Jones Industrial Average occurred in late March 2006 possibly beginning a vicious bear market at a time when the overall bullish enthusiasm for stocks was peaking.

This opinion is predicated on the conclusion that the Dow Jones will not exceed 11,350 before starting a very vicious bear leg to the downside taking the Dow below 10,600 by the fall of 2006.

With the Dow nearing 12,000 it seems like the pattern didn’t work this time I should have known when I saw references to Fibonacci ratios, W.D. Gann and Elliott Wave all in the same article that it wouldn’t turn out well!